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Mainz 05vsSC Paderborn 07
Match
★ THE AI READEvery signal we found, grouped.
Mainz 05vsSC Paderborn 07
BTTS

Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10

55%
Mainz 05 BTTS
71%
SC Paderborn BTTS
Last 10 matches

Mainz 05 at 55%, SC Paderborn 07 at 71%. The H2H rate is 63% — the model copies it.

Both teams to score
GOALS

Both attacks fire — 3.0 goals expected, line is 2.5

Mainz 05
1.4
SC Paderborn 07
1.7

Mainz 05 1.4 g/m, SC Paderborn 07 1.7. Edge is mild — line and model are close.

Over 2.5 Goals
Alt:Over 1.52.43Over 1.51.61
★ ALL MARKETSCompare every line.
★ POPULAR VALUE BETSWhere the crowd is putting their money — value picks only (1.50–5.00).
Mainz 05 to win
Match
Full Time
SC Paderborn 07 to Win and Both Teams To Score
Draw and Both Teams To Score
Mainz 05 to Win and Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score
Total Goals
LineOverUnder
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
Total Goals by Mainz 05
LineOverUnder
1.5
Total Goals by SC Paderborn 07
LineOverUnder
0.5
Total Goals Odd/Even
Double Chance - 1st Half
Double Chance
Draw No Bet
Draw No Bet - 1st Half
Total Goals - 1st Half
LineOverUnder
1.5
Half Time
★ DEEP STATSForm, history, edge.

Form & Hierarchy

FORM

Last 5 matches
HomeMainz 05
AwaySC Paderborn 07
Win Rate vs Table Tier
Each team's win % against opponents in the top, middle, and bottom thirds of the table this season.
Mainz 05
vs Top tier
46%
6W·4D·3L (13)
vs Mid tier
27%
3W·3D·5L (11)
vs Bottom tier
60%
3W·2D·0L (5)
SC Paderborn 07
vs Top tier
30%
3W·2D·5L (10)
vs Mid tier
43%
3W·3D·1L (7)
vs Bottom tier
70%
7W·2D·1L (10)

Momentum Meter

Mainz 05SC Paderborn 07
▲MOMENTUM▲
1.40PPG (LAST 5)1.00
21%CLEAN-SHEET WIN RATE14%

League Position

1Bayern Munich89pts
2Borussia Dortmund73pts
3RB Leipzig65pts
4VfB Stuttgart62pts

League table

#TeamPGDPts
1Bayern Munich34+8689
2Borussia Dortmund34+3673
3RB Leipzig34+1965
4VfB Stuttgart34+2262
5TSG Hoffenheim34+1361

Goals & BTTS

GOAL PROFILE

Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07
Mainz 0591 goals
1st half0%
2nd half0%
60 matches analysed
SC Paderborn 07117 goals
1st half0%
2nd half0%
59 matches analysed
Team Goals Distribution (model)
Probability of each team scoring 0, 1, 2, or 3+ goals — anchor for Team Total Goals markets.
Mainz 05 — expected: 1.44 goals
0
23.7%
1
34.1%
2
24.6%
3+
17.6%
SC Paderborn 07 — expected: 1.52 goals
0
21.8%
1
33.2%
2
25.3%
3+
19.7%
Total Goals — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Mainz 05 (1.38 scored / 1.34 conceded per match) and SC Paderborn 07 (1.71 / 1.50). Expected total: 2.96.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
0.5
94.8%
5.2%
1.05
1.5
79.6%
20.4%
1.26
2.5
56.9%
43.1%
1.76
3.5
34.5%
65.5%
2.90
4.5
17.9%
82.1%
5.59
5.5
8.0%
92.0%
12.43
Compare the fair-odds column against the bookmaker's Over price — significant gaps either way are value flags. Model assumes Poisson-distributed goals and average attack/defence; doesn't yet adjust for home advantage or vs-tier opponent strength (planned, see VS Engine extension spec).
BTTS Rate vs Table Tier
Both teams' BTTS rate broken down by opponent's league position. Spot the gap between season-overall and tier-specific rates.
Mainz 05season 55.2%
vs Top tier
53.8%
(13)
vs Mid tier
54.5%
(11)
vs Bottom tier
60%
(5)
SC Paderborn 07season 71.4%
vs Top tier
80%
(10)
vs Mid tier
57.1%
(7)
vs Bottom tier
70%
(10)
Clean Sheet Rate
% of matches with no goals conceded — opponent's path to BTTS No or Win-to-Nil
Mainz 05
27.6%
SC Paderborn 07
21.4%
Clean-sheet win rate: Mainz 05 20.7% · SC Paderborn 07 14.3%

Scoring Patterns

Mainz 05SC Paderborn 07
41%SCORED FIRST36%
24%FAILED TO SCORE14%
62%LEADING AT HT61%
31%CONCEDED 2+46%

HEAD-TO-HEAD

1. FSV Mainz 052 - 0SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 071 - 21. FSV Mainz 05
1. FSV Mainz 055 - 0SC Paderborn 07

0 meetings: 0 home wins, 0 draws, 0 away wins

Half-Time Behaviour

Half-Time Lead Rate
How often each team is leading / drawing / trailing at HT
Mainz 05lead 41% · draw 38% · trail 21%
SC Paderborn 07lead 36% · draw 36% · trail 29%
HT/FT Combinations (model)
Joint half-time × full-time rates blended from Mainz 05's and SC Paderborn 07's half-by-half records. Heatmap intensity = relative likelihood.
Home / Home
1/1
25.5%
Home / Draw
1/X
13.0%
Home / Away
1/2
13.0%
Draw / Home
X/1
11.6%
Draw / Draw
X/X
12.9%
Draw / Away
X/2
12.3%
Away / Home
2/1
7.8%
Away / Draw
2/X
7.8%
Away / Away
2/2
16.8%
Independence assumption between halves is an approximation — true joint frequencies require per-match HT+FT pairs (VS Engine extension planned). Use for relative comparison rather than absolute probability.
First-Half Tendency
How each team starts matches — anchor for 1H markets, HT/FT, Half-Time Result.
Stat
Mainz 05
SC Paderborn 07
Scored first %
41.4%
35.7%
Conceded first %
—
—
Failed to score %
24.1%
14.3%

Set Pieces & Discipline

Corners

Per-match rolling average
Mainz 05SC Paderborn 07
0CORNERS FOR0
0CORNERS AGAINST0
0NET DIFF0
Total Corners — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Mainz 05 (4.97 / 4.52 per match) and SC Paderborn 07 (5.39 / 4.43). Expected total: 9.65. Compare the fair-odds column against the bookie's Over price for value.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
7.5
74.7%
25.3%
1.34
8.5
62.7%
37.3%
1.59
9.5
49.8%
50.2%
2.01
10.5
37.4%
62.6%
2.67
11.5
26.5%
73.5%
3.78
12.5
17.7%
82.3%
5.65
Corner Dominance
Expected corners: Mainz 05 4.7, SC Paderborn 07 5.0. Difference: -0.3.
Mainz 05 49%51% SC Paderborn 07

Cards & Discipline

Mainz 05SC Paderborn 07
0YELLOW / MATCH0
0RED / MATCH0
0TOTAL / MATCH0
Total Cards — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Mainz 05 (1.97 / 1.97 per match) and SC Paderborn 07 (2.25 / 2.25). Expected total: 4.22. Note: card markets are heavily referee-driven — combine with Referee Effect.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
2.5
79.2%
20.8%
1.26
3.5
60.8%
39.2%
1.64
4.5
41.4%
58.6%
2.42
5.5
25.0%
75.0%
4.00
6.5
13.5%
86.5%
7.42

Shots

Per-match rolling average
Mainz 05SC Paderborn 07
0SHOTS / MATCH0
0ON TARGET0
0CONCEDED0
0ON TARGET CONC.0
Total Shots — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Mainz 05 (10.31 / 10.66 per match) and SC Paderborn 07 (11.96 / 10.93). Expected total: 21.93. Total shots includes off-target attempts.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
18.5
76.3%
23.7%
1.31
20.5
60.7%
39.3%
1.65
22.5
43.8%
56.2%
2.28
24.5
28.3%
71.7%
3.53
26.5
16.4%
83.6%
6.11
Total SoT — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Mainz 05 (4.69 / 4.41 per match) and SC Paderborn 07 (5.18 / 5.04). Expected total: 9.66. Shots on target only — typically half the total shot count.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
6.5
84.7%
15.3%
1.18
7.5
74.8%
25.2%
1.34
8.5
62.8%
37.2%
1.59
9.5
49.9%
50.1%
2.00
10.5
37.5%
62.5%
2.67
11.5
26.5%
73.5%
3.77

Combos & Specials

Combo Bet Hit Rate
How often each team has hit common combo bets (Win+BTTS, Win-to-Nil, Win+Over 2.5) — overall and against specific tiers. Cells suppressed when sample < 5 matches.
Mainz 05
Win + BTTS
season
20.7%
vs top
23.1%
vs mid
9.1%
vs bottom
40%
Win to Nil
season
20.7%
vs top
23.1%
vs mid
18.2%
vs bottom
20%
Win + Over 2.5
season
20.7%
vs top
23.1%
vs mid
9.1%
vs bottom
40%
Loss + BTTS
season
10.3%
vs top
7.7%
vs mid
18.2%
vs bottom
0%
Draw + Under 2.5
season
20.7%
vs top
15.4%
vs mid
18.2%
vs bottom
40%
Scored in Both Halves
season
34.5%
vs top
46.2%
vs mid
27.3%
vs bottom
20%
SC Paderborn 07
Win + BTTS
season
32.1%
vs top
20%
vs mid
28.6%
vs bottom
50%
Win to Nil
season
14.3%
vs top
10%
vs mid
14.3%
vs bottom
20%
Win + Over 2.5
season
35.7%
vs top
20%
vs mid
42.9%
vs bottom
50%
Loss + BTTS
season
21.4%
vs top
40%
vs mid
0%
vs bottom
10%
Draw + Under 2.5
season
14.3%
vs top
10%
vs mid
14.3%
vs bottom
20%
Scored in Both Halves
season
25%
vs top
30%
vs mid
14.3%
vs bottom
30%
Unbeaten Run
Consecutive matches without losing — the safer side of Double Chance / DNB
Mainz 05
1 match unbeaten
1
SC Paderborn 07
1 match unbeaten
1
Win % Excluding Draws
How often each team wins when the match doesn't end in a draw — DNB anchor
Mainz 05
50%
2W · 1D · 2L · draw rate 20%
SC Paderborn 07
33.3%
1W · 2D · 2L · draw rate 40%

HIDDEN PATTERNS

Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07
  • The Prime Number Effect! When SC Paderborn 07 play on prime datesSC Paderborn 07 SCORE
    11/11Applies today
  • The Saturday Factor! When Amiri, Nadiem play on a SaturdayAmiri, Nadiem GOAL OR ASSIST
    6/6Applies today
  • The Saturday Factor! When Amiri, Nadiem play on a SaturdayAmiri, Nadiem FINDS THE NET
    5/6Applies today
  • The Prime Number Effect! When Mainz 05 play on prime datesMainz 05 SCORE
    9/11Applies today
  • The Cocoa Effect! When cocoa futures close higher and SC Paderborn 07 playSC Paderborn 07 SCORE
    11/12Applies today

Match Insights

Betting Trends
No betting data available for this market yet.

MATCH INSIGHT

Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07
  • Half-time result
    Mainz 0512W 11D 6L
    SC Paderborn 0710W 10D 8L

League bests

BEST OVERALL
  1. #1IK Sirius2.67 poäng/match
  2. #2Hammarby IF1.77 poäng/match
  3. #3BK Hacken1.67 poäng/match
BEST ATTACK
  1. #1IK Sirius2.75 mål/match
  2. #2Hammarby IF2.15 mål/match
  3. #3Djurgardens IF2.09 mål/match
BEST DEFENCE
  1. #1GAIS0.92 insläppta/match
  2. #2Hammarby IF1.08 insläppta/match
  3. #3IF Elfsborg1.08 insläppta/match
BEST FORM
  1. #1IK Sirius80% vinster senaste 5
  2. #2Malmo FF60% vinster senaste 5
  3. #3IF Elfsborg60% vinster senaste 5
BEST GOAL DIFFERENCE
  1. #1IK Sirius+18
  2. #2Hammarby IF+14
  3. #3Djurgardens IF+8
★ PLAYERSWho decides this match.

PLAYER PROFILE

Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07
Mainz 05
  • Amiri, Nadiem
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Katompa Mvumpa, Silas
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Hollerbach, Benedict
    0G
    0A
    0
SC Paderborn 07
  • Bilbija, Filip
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Klaas, Sebastian
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Curda, Laurin
    0G
    0A
    0

TOP SCORERS

  1. 1
    Ure, RobbieSIR
    12
  2. 2
    Botheim, ErikMAL
    10
  3. 3
    Bjerkebo, IsakSIR
    10
  4. 4
    Ladefoged, MikkelVAS
    9
  5. 5
    Lien, Kristian StromlandDJU
    7
  6. 6
    Abraham, PaulosHIF
    7
  7. 7
    Heintz, TobiasIFK
    6
  8. 8
    Besara, NahirHIF
    5
  9. 9
    Lind, VictorHIF
    5
  10. 10
    Bergstrom, JacobMJA
    5

Top Assists

  1. 1
    Hegland, Bo AsulvDJU
    8
  2. 2
    Berg, OliverBRO
    5
  3. 3
    Haksabanovic, SeadMAL
    5
  4. 4
    Krusnell, OscarSIR
    5
  5. 5
    Hansen, MadsBRO
    5
  6. 6
    Sana, TobiasORG
    4
  7. 7
    Besara, NahirHIF
    4
  8. 8
    Layouni, AmorHAC
    4
  9. 9
    Lushaku, IsmetVAS
    4
  10. 10
    Milovanovic, WilliamGAIS
    4
★ MATCH INFOVenue, ref, weather.
M0Mainz 05
SPSC Paderborn 07
BundesligaSat 29 Aug, 15:30
Historical H2H (3 meetings)
Avg goals: 3.33 · BTTS: 33% · Over 2.5: 67% · Clean sheet either side: 67%
DateMatchScoreComp.
29 Feb 201. FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 072–0—
05 Oct 19SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FSV Mainz 051–2—
31 Jan 151. FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 075–0—
18+

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