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MálagavsReal Sociedad
Match
★ THE AI READEvery signal we found, grouped.
MálagavsReal Sociedad
GOALS

Both attacks fire — 3.2 goals expected, line is 2.5

Málaga
1.6
Real Sociedad
1.5

Málaga averaging 1.6, Real Sociedad 1.5. The number sits clean above 2.5.

Over 2.5 Goals
Alt:Over 2.53.90Over 2.51.77
BTTS

Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10

60%
Málaga BTTS
67%
Real Socieda BTTS
Last 10 matches

Málaga at 60%, Real Sociedad at 67%. The H2H rate is 63% — the model copies it.

Both teams to score
CORNERS

Málaga live in the opposition third — 10.9 corners/match between them

Málaga avg 4.9Real Sociedad avg 6.0
4.9
6.0
total scale: 0 → 14

Combined 10.9/m vs the 9.5 line — only 1.4 over. The shape is right, the margin is thin.

Over 9.5 Corners
Alt:Over 8.51.54Over 10.52.38
★ ALL MARKETSCompare every line.
★ POPULAR VALUE BETSWhere the crowd is putting their money — value picks only (1.50–5.00).
Real Sociedad to win
Match
Full Time
Málaga to Win to Nil
Real Sociedad to Win At Least One Half
Málaga to Win At Least One Half
Real Sociedad to Win to Nil
Real Sociedad to Win and Both Teams To Score
Goal in Both Halves
Málaga to Win and Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score - 1st Half
Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score - 2nd Half
Total Goals
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
Under—
Total Goals by Málaga
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
Under—
Total Goals by Real Sociedad
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
Double Chance
Double Chance - 1st Half
Double Chance - 2nd Half
Draw No Bet
Draw No Bet - 2nd Half
Draw No Bet - 1st Half
Total Goals - 1st Half
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
2.5
Total Goals - 2nd Half
LineUnderOver
0.5
1.5
2.5
Total Goals by Málaga - 1st Half
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
Total Goals by Real Sociedad - 1st Half
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
Total Goals by Málaga - 2nd Half
LineOverUnder
0.5
Total Goals by Real Sociedad - 2nd Half
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
3-Way Handicap - 1st Half
Line1X
Málaga
Málaga
Málaga
First Goal (Draw: No Goals)
2nd Half
Half Time
Total Corners
LineUnderOver
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
11.5
12.5
13.5
Total Corners - 1st Half
LineOverUnder
3.5
4.5
5.5
Total Corners - 2nd Half
LineOverUnder
5.5
Total Corners By Real Sociedad - 1st Half
LineOverUnder
1.5
2.5
3.5
Total Corners by Málaga
LineOverUnder
3.5
4.5
5.5
Total Corners by Real Sociedad
LineOverUnder
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
Total Corners By Málaga - 1st Half
LineOverUnder
1.5
2.5
Corners 3-Way Handicap
Line1X
Málaga
Málaga
Málaga
Most Corners
Next Corner, No Corner No Bet (1)
Total Shots on Target
LineOver2
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
11.5
Total Shots on Target by Real Sociedad
LineOver2
4.5
5.5
6.5
Total Shots on Target by Málaga
LineOver2
3.5
4.5
5.5
★ DEEP STATSForm, history, edge.

Form & Hierarchy

FORM

Last 5 matches
HomeMálaga
AwayReal Sociedad
Win Rate vs Table Tier
Each team's win % against opponents in the top, middle, and bottom thirds of the table this season.
Málaga
vs Top tier
36%
4W·4D·3L (11)
vs Mid tier
33%
3W·4D·2L (9)
vs Bottom tier
40%
2W·2D·1L (5)
Real Sociedad
vs Top tier
0%
0W·1D·4L (5)
vs Mid tier
33%
2W·2D·2L (6)
vs Bottom tier
40%
4W·3D·3L (10)

Momentum Meter

MálagaReal Sociedad
▼MOMENTUM▼
0.40PPG (LAST 5)2.00
16%CLEAN-SHEET WIN RATE10%

League Position

1FC Barcelona21pts
2Atletico Madrid16pts
3Real Betis Seville16pts
4Real Madrid15pts

League table

#TeamPGDPts
1FC Barcelona7+2421
2Atletico Madrid7+916
3Real Betis Seville7+216
4Real Madrid7+1015
5Sevilla FC7+113

Goals & BTTS

GOAL PROFILE

Málaga vs Real Sociedad
Málaga110 goals
1st half0%
2nd half0%
65 matches analysed
Real Sociedad97 goals
1st half0%
2nd half0%
62 matches analysed
Team Goals Distribution (model)
Probability of each team scoring 0, 1, 2, or 3+ goals — anchor for Team Total Goals markets.
Málaga — expected: 1.73 goals
0
17.8%
1
30.7%
2
26.5%
3+
24.9%
Real Sociedad — expected: 1.46 goals
0
23.2%
1
33.9%
2
24.8%
3+
18.1%
Total Goals — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Málaga (1.64 scored / 1.40 conceded per match) and Real Sociedad (1.52 / 1.81). Expected total: 3.19.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
0.5
95.9%
4.1%
1.04
1.5
82.7%
17.3%
1.21
2.5
61.7%
38.3%
1.62
3.5
39.4%
60.6%
2.54
4.5
21.7%
78.3%
4.61
5.5
10.4%
89.6%
9.64
Compare the fair-odds column against the bookmaker's Over price — significant gaps either way are value flags. Model assumes Poisson-distributed goals and average attack/defence; doesn't yet adjust for home advantage or vs-tier opponent strength (planned, see VS Engine extension spec).
BTTS Rate vs Table Tier
Both teams' BTTS rate broken down by opponent's league position. Spot the gap between season-overall and tier-specific rates.
Málagaseason 60%
vs Top tier
63.6%
(11)
vs Mid tier
55.6%
(9)
vs Bottom tier
60%
(5)
Real Sociedadseason 66.7%
vs Top tier
80%
(5)
vs Mid tier
83.3%
(6)
vs Bottom tier
50%
(10)
Clean Sheet Rate
% of matches with no goals conceded — opponent's path to BTTS No or Win-to-Nil
Málaga
28%
Real Sociedad
14.3%
Clean-sheet win rate: Málaga 16% · Real Sociedad 9.5%

Scoring Patterns

MálagaReal Sociedad
28%SCORED FIRST33%
24%FAILED TO SCORE24%
56%LEADING AT HT52%
36%CONCEDED 2+52%

HEAD-TO-HEAD

Malaga2 - 0Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad0 - 2Malaga
Real Sociedad2 - 2Malaga
Malaga0 - 2Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad1 - 1Malaga
Malaga3 - 1Real Sociedad

0 meetings: 0 home wins, 0 draws, 0 away wins

Half-Time Behaviour

Half-Time Lead Rate
How often each team is leading / drawing / trailing at HT
Málagalead 28% · draw 48% · trail 24%
Real Sociedadlead 33% · draw 43% · trail 24%
HT/FT Combinations (model)
Joint half-time × full-time rates blended from Málaga's and Real Sociedad's half-by-half records. Heatmap intensity = relative likelihood.
Home / Home
1/1
19.3%
Home / Draw
1/X
11.4%
Home / Away
1/2
11.4%
Draw / Home
X/1
14.7%
Draw / Draw
X/X
13.9%
Draw / Away
X/2
16.8%
Away / Home
2/1
7.6%
Away / Draw
2/X
7.6%
Away / Away
2/2
16.3%
Independence assumption between halves is an approximation — true joint frequencies require per-match HT+FT pairs (VS Engine extension planned). Use for relative comparison rather than absolute probability.
First-Half Tendency
How each team starts matches — anchor for 1H markets, HT/FT, Half-Time Result.
Stat
Málaga
Real Sociedad
Scored first %
28%
33.3%
Conceded first %
—
—
Failed to score %
24%
23.8%

Set Pieces & Discipline

Corners

Per-match rolling average
MálagaReal Sociedad
0CORNERS FOR0
0CORNERS AGAINST0
0NET DIFF0
Total Corners — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Málaga (4.92 / 4.92 per match) and Real Sociedad (5.95 / 4.24). Expected total: 10.02. Compare the fair-odds column against the bookie's Over price for value.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
7.5
78.1%
21.9%
1.28
8.5
66.9%
33.1%
1.50
9.5
54.4%
45.6%
1.84
10.5
41.9%
58.1%
2.39
11.5
30.5%
69.5%
3.28
12.5
21.0%
79.0%
4.76
Corner Dominance
Expected corners: Málaga 4.6, Real Sociedad 5.4. Difference: -0.9.
Málaga 46%54% Real Sociedad

Cards & Discipline

MálagaReal Sociedad
0YELLOW / MATCH0
0RED / MATCH0
0TOTAL / MATCH0
Total Cards — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Málaga (2.28 / 2.28 per match) and Real Sociedad (2.76 / 2.76). Expected total: 5.04. Note: card markets are heavily referee-driven — combine with Referee Effect.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
2.5
87.9%
12.1%
1.14
3.5
74.1%
25.9%
1.35
4.5
56.6%
43.4%
1.77
5.5
39.1%
60.9%
2.56
6.5
24.4%
75.6%
4.10

Shots

Per-match rolling average
MálagaReal Sociedad
0SHOTS / MATCH0
0ON TARGET0
0CONCEDED0
0ON TARGET CONC.0
Total Shots — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Málaga (11.64 / 11.28 per match) and Real Sociedad (10.67 / 14.05). Expected total: 23.82. Total shots includes off-target attempts.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
18.5
86.4%
13.6%
1.16
20.5
74.6%
25.4%
1.34
22.5
59.4%
40.6%
1.68
24.5
43.1%
56.9%
2.32
26.5
28.3%
71.7%
3.53
Total SoT — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Málaga (5.00 / 4.68 per match) and Real Sociedad (4.14 / 5.57). Expected total: 9.70. Shots on target only — typically half the total shot count.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
6.5
84.9%
15.1%
1.18
7.5
75.1%
24.9%
1.33
8.5
63.2%
36.8%
1.58
9.5
50.3%
49.7%
1.99
10.5
37.9%
62.1%
2.64
11.5
26.9%
73.1%
3.72

Combos & Specials

Combo Bet Hit Rate
How often each team has hit common combo bets (Win+BTTS, Win-to-Nil, Win+Over 2.5) — overall and against specific tiers. Cells suppressed when sample < 5 matches.
Málaga
Win + BTTS
season
20%
vs top
18.2%
vs mid
22.2%
vs bottom
20%
Win to Nil
season
16%
vs top
18.2%
vs mid
11.1%
vs bottom
20%
Win + Over 2.5
season
24%
vs top
18.2%
vs mid
33.3%
vs bottom
20%
Loss + BTTS
season
12%
vs top
18.2%
vs mid
0%
vs bottom
20%
Draw + Under 2.5
season
32%
vs top
36.4%
vs mid
33.3%
vs bottom
20%
Scored in Both Halves
season
32%
vs top
18.2%
vs mid
33.3%
vs bottom
60%
Real Sociedad
Win + BTTS
season
19%
vs top
0%
vs mid
33.3%
vs bottom
20%
Win to Nil
season
9.5%
vs top
0%
vs mid
0%
vs bottom
20%
Win + Over 2.5
season
19%
vs top
0%
vs mid
33.3%
vs bottom
20%
Loss + BTTS
season
23.8%
vs top
60%
vs mid
16.7%
vs bottom
10%
Draw + Under 2.5
season
14.3%
vs top
0%
vs mid
16.7%
vs bottom
20%
Scored in Both Halves
season
42.9%
vs top
20%
vs mid
66.7%
vs bottom
40%
Unbeaten Run
Consecutive matches without losing — the safer side of Double Chance / DNB
Málaga
lost last match
0
Real Sociedad
3 matches unbeaten
3
Win % Excluding Draws
How often each team wins when the match doesn't end in a draw — DNB anchor
Málaga
0%
0W · 2D · 3L · draw rate 40%
Real Sociedad
75%
3W · 1D · 1L · draw rate 20%

HIDDEN PATTERNS

Málaga vs Real Sociedad
  • Sugar rush on matchday! When sugar futures close higher and Málaga playMálaga SCORE
    10/11Applies today
  • The Cocoa Effect! When cocoa futures close higher and Real Sociedad playReal Sociedad SCORE
    13/16Applies today
  • OJ futures pop! When orange-juice futures close higher and Real Sociedad playReal Sociedad SCORE
    12/15Applies today
  • Waxing Moon Effect! When the moon grows and Real Sociedad playReal Sociedad SCORE
    9/11Applies today
  • OJ futures pop! When orange-juice futures close higher and Málaga playMálaga SCORE
    10/13Applies today

Match Insights

Betting Trends
No betting data available for this market yet.

MATCH INSIGHT

Málaga vs Real Sociedad
  • Away team corners
    Málaga4.9 /match
    Real Sociedad6.0 /match
  • Home team corners
    Málaga4.9 /match
    Real Sociedad6.0 /match

League bests

BEST OVERALL
  1. #1IK Sirius2.32 poäng/match
  2. #2Hammarby IF1.95 poäng/match
  3. #3Djurgardens IF1.86 poäng/match
BEST ATTACK
  1. #1IK Sirius2.36 mål/match
  2. #2Hammarby IF2.23 mål/match
  3. #3Djurgardens IF2.14 mål/match
BEST DEFENCE
  1. #1Hammarby IF0.91 insläppta/match
  2. #2GAIS0.91 insläppta/match
  3. #3Djurgardens IF0.95 insläppta/match
BEST FORM
  1. #1IK Sirius80% vinster senaste 5
  2. #2IF Elfsborg60% vinster senaste 5
  3. #3Malmo FF60% vinster senaste 5
BEST GOAL DIFFERENCE
  1. #1Hammarby IF+29
  2. #2Djurgardens IF+26
  3. #3IK Sirius+24
★ PLAYERSWho decides this match.

PLAYER PROFILE

Málaga vs Real Sociedad
Málaga
  • Chupete
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Nino, Adrian
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Munoz, Joaquin
    0G
    0A
    0
Real Sociedad
  • Oskarsson, Orri
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Oyarzabal, Mikel
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Soler, Carlos
    0G
    0A
    0

TOP SCORERS

  1. 1
    Lien, Kristian StromlandDJU
    16
  2. 2
    Ure, RobbieSIR
    15
  3. 3
    Abraham, PaulosHIF
    14
  4. 4
    Bjerkebo, IsakSIR
    13
  5. 5
    Lindgren, GustavHAC
    12
  6. 6
    Botheim, ErikMAL
    10
  7. 7
    Lind, VictorHIF
    9
  8. 8
    Bergstrom, JacobMJA
    9
  9. 9
    Christofferson, NoahORG
    8
  10. 10
    Hegland, Bo AsulvDJU
    8

Top Assists

  1. 1
    Hegland, Bo AsulvDJU
    14
  2. 2
    Lind, VictorHIF
    13
  3. 3
    Haksabanovic, SeadMAL
    8
  4. 4
    Bjerkebo, IsakSIR
    7
  5. 5
    Sana, TobiasORG
    6
  6. 6
    Berg, OliverBRO
    6
  7. 7
    Hansen, MadsBRO
    6
  8. 8
    Heintz, TobiasIFK
    5
  9. 9
    Krusnell, OscarSIR
    5
  10. 10
    Lindberg, JuliusHAC
    5
★ MATCH INFOVenue, ref, weather.
MMálaga
RSReal Sociedad
La LigaSun 18 Oct, 18:30
Round
La Liga matchweek
9
VenueLa RosaledaMalaga · Spain · 30,044
Historical H2H (7 meetings)
Avg goals: 2.57 · BTTS: 57% · Over 2.5: 29% · Clean sheet either side: 43%
DateMatchScoreComp.
22 Apr 18Malaga CF vs Real Sociedad2–0—
10 Dec 17Real Sociedad vs Malaga CF0–2—
14 May 17Real Sociedad vs Malaga CF2–2—
16 Jan 17Malaga CF vs Real Sociedad0–2—
27 Feb 16Real Sociedad vs Malaga CF1–1—
03 Oct 15Malaga CF vs Real Sociedad3–1—
04 Apr 15Malaga CF vs Real Sociedad1–1—
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