Junibet

NottinghamvsArsenal

Match

★ THE AI READEvery signal we found, grouped.

NottinghamvsArsenal

GOALS

Both attacks fire — 2.4 goals expected, line is 1.5

Nottingham averaging 1.4, Arsenal 1.4. The number sits clean above 1.5.

Over 1.5 Goals

Alt:Over 1.53.95Over 1.52.65

CORNERS

Nottingham live in the opposition third — 8.7 corners/match between them

Combined 8.7/m vs the 7.5 line — only 1.2 over. The shape is right, the margin is thin.

Over 7.5 Corners

Alt:Over 6.52.40Over 5.53.45

BTTS

Nottingham clean sheets 27% of the time

Arsenal keep one in 2. The lockdown read isn't fanciful at this price.

Both teams to score · No

★ ALL MARKETSCompare every line.

★ POPULAR VALUE BETSWhere the crowd is putting their money — value picks only (1.50–5.00).

Arsenal to win

Match

Full Time

Arsenal to Win to Nil

Nottingham Forest to Win to Nil

Arsenal to Win At Least One Half

Nottingham Forest to Win At Least One Half

Both Teams To Score - 1st Half

Arsenal to Win and Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score - 2nd Half

Both Teams To Score

Goal in Both Halves

Nottingham Forest to Win and Both Teams To Score

Total Goals

LineOverUnder

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

5.5

Total Goals by Arsenal

LineOverUnder

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

Under—

Total Goals by Nottingham Forest

LineOverUnder

0.5

1.5

2.5

Double Chance

Double Chance - 1st Half

Double Chance - 2nd Half

Draw No Bet - 1st Half

Draw No Bet

Draw No Bet - 2nd Half

Total Goals - 1st Half

LineOverUnder

0.5

1.5

2.5

Total Goals - 2nd Half

LineUnderOver

0.5

1.5

2.5

Total Goals by Arsenal - 1st Half

LineOverUnder

0.5

1.5

Total Goals by Nottingham Forest - 2nd Half

LineOverUnder

0.5

Total Goals by Arsenal - 2nd Half

LineOverUnder

0.5

1.5

Total Goals by Nottingham Forest - 1st Half

LineOverUnder

0.5

1.5

Under—

3-Way Handicap - 1st Half

Line1X

Nottingham

Nottingham

Nottingham

First Goal (Draw: No Goals)

Half Time

2nd Half

Total Corners

LineUnderOver

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

10.5

11.5

12.5

13.5

Total Corners - 1st Half

LineOverUnder

3.5

4.5

5.5

Total Corners - 2nd Half

LineOverUnder

5.5

Total Corners by Nottingham Forest

LineOverUnder

2.5

3.5

4.5

5.5

Total Corners By Nottingham Forest - 1st Half

LineOverUnder

0.5

1.5

2.5

Total Corners By Arsenal - 1st Half

LineOverUnder

1.5

2.5

3.5

Total Corners by Arsenal

LineOverUnder

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

Corners 3-Way Handicap

Line1X

Nottingham

Nottingham

Nottingham

Next Corner, No Corner No Bet (1)

Most Corners

Total Shots on Target by Nottingham Forest

LineOver2

2.5

3.5

Total Shots on Target

LineOver2

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

Total Shots on Target by Arsenal

LineOver2

4.5

5.5

6.5

★ DEEP STATSForm, history, edge.

Form & Hierarchy

FORM

Last 5 matches

HomeNottingham

AwayArsenal

Win Rate vs Table Tier

Each team's win % against opponents in the top, middle, and bottom thirds of the table this season.

Nottingham

vs Top tier

33%

3W·3D·3L (9)

vs Mid tier

33%

2W·3D·1L (6)

vs Bottom tier

60%

3W·1D·1L (5)

Arsenal

vs Top tier

40%

4W·4D·2L (10)

vs Mid tier

80%

4W·0D·1L (5)

vs Bottom tier

100%

5W·0D·0L (5)

Momentum Meter

NottinghamArsenal

▲MOMENTUM▼

1.00PPG (LAST 5)2.40

18%CLEAN-SHEET WIN RATE48%

League Position

1Manchester City15pts

2Arsenal FC12pts

3Brighton & Hove Albion10pts

4Brentford FC9pts

League table

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	5	+8	15
2	Arsenal FC	5	+4	12
3	Brighton & Hove Albion	5	+11	10
4	Brentford FC	5	+6	9
5	Leeds United	5	+4	9

Goals & BTTS

GOAL PROFILE

Nottingham vs Arsenal

Nottingham83 goals

1st half0%

2nd half0%

60 matches analysed

Arsenal101 goals

1st half0%

2nd half0%

64 matches analysed

Team Goals Distribution (model)

Probability of each team scoring 0, 1, 2, or 3+ goals — anchor for Team Total Goals markets.

Nottingham — expected: 1.13 goals

0

32.3%

1

36.5%

2

20.6%

3+

10.6%

Arsenal — expected: 1.25 goals

0

28.8%

1

35.8%

2

22.3%

3+

13.0%

Total Goals — Line Hit Rate (model)

Poisson estimate from Nottingham (1.41 scored / 1.05 conceded per match) and Arsenal (1.44 / 0.85). Expected total: 2.38.

Line

P(Over)

Over %

Under %

Fair odds

0.5

90.7%

9.3%

1.10

1.5

68.6%

31.4%

1.46

2.5

42.4%

57.6%

2.36

3.5

21.6%

78.4%

4.63

4.5

9.3%

90.7%

10.78

5.5

3.4%

96.6%

29.25

Compare the fair-odds column against the bookmaker's Over price — significant gaps either way are value flags. Model assumes Poisson-distributed goals and average attack/defence; doesn't yet adjust for home advantage or vs-tier opponent strength (planned, see VS Engine extension spec).

BTTS Rate vs Table Tier

Both teams' BTTS rate broken down by opponent's league position. Spot the gap between season-overall and tier-specific rates.

Nottinghamseason 50%

vs Top tier

55.6%

(9)

vs Mid tier

50%

(6)

vs Bottom tier

40%

(5)

Arsenalseason 40.7%

vs Top tier

50%

(10)

vs Mid tier

20%

(5)

vs Bottom tier

20%

(5)

Clean Sheet Rate

% of matches with no goals conceded — opponent's path to BTTS No or Win-to-Nil

Nottingham

27.3%

Arsenal

51.9%

Clean-sheet win rate: Nottingham 18.2% · Arsenal 48.1%

Scoring Patterns

NottinghamArsenal

32%SCORED FIRST41%

32%FAILED TO SCORE11%

50%LEADING AT HT70%

18%CONCEDED 2+26%

HEAD-TO-HEAD

17 Jan 2026

Nottingham Forest0 - 0Arsenal

13 Sep 2025

Arsenal3 - 0Nottingham Forest

26 Feb 2025

Nottingham Forest0 - 0Arsenal

23 Nov 2024

Arsenal3 - 0Nottingham Forest

30 Jan 2024

Nottingham Forest1 - 2Arsenal

12 Aug 2023

Arsenal2 - 1Nottingham Forest

0 meetings: 0 home wins, 0 draws, 0 away wins

Half-Time Behaviour

Half-Time Lead Rate

How often each team is leading / drawing / trailing at HT

Nottinghamlead 32% · draw 55% · trail 14%

Arsenallead 41% · draw 48% · trail 11%

HT/FT Combinations (model)

Joint half-time × full-time rates blended from Nottingham's and Arsenal's half-by-half records. Heatmap intensity = relative likelihood.

Home / Home

1/1

26.7%

Home / Draw

1/X

9.6%

Home / Away

1/2

9.6%

Draw / Home

X/1

17.2%

Draw / Draw

X/X

20.1%

Draw / Away

X/2

14.0%

Away / Home

2/1

4.1%

Away / Draw

2/X

4.1%

Away / Away

2/2

8.3%

Independence assumption between halves is an approximation — true joint frequencies require per-match HT+FT pairs (VS Engine extension planned). Use for relative comparison rather than absolute probability.

First-Half Tendency

How each team starts matches — anchor for 1H markets, HT/FT, Half-Time Result.

Stat

Nottingham

Arsenal

Scored first %

31.8%

40.7%

Conceded first %

—

—

Failed to score %

31.8%

11.1%

Set Pieces & Discipline

Corners

Per-match rolling average

NottinghamArsenal

0CORNERS FOR0

0CORNERS AGAINST0

0NET DIFF0

Total Corners — Line Hit Rate (model)

Poisson estimate from Nottingham (4.23 / 4.36 per match) and Arsenal (4.44 / 3.30). Expected total: 8.17. Compare the fair-odds column against the bookie's Over price for value.

Line

P(Over)

Over %

Under %

Fair odds

7.5

57.0%

43.0%

1.75

8.5

43.0%

57.0%

2.32

9.5

30.4%

69.6%

3.29

10.5

20.1%

79.9%

4.98

11.5

12.4%

87.6%

8.05

12.5

7.2%

92.8%

13.88

Corner Dominance

Expected corners: Nottingham 3.8, Arsenal 4.4. Difference: -0.6.

Nottingham 46%54% Arsenal

Cards & Discipline

NottinghamArsenal

0YELLOW / MATCH0

0RED / MATCH0

0TOTAL / MATCH0

Total Cards — Line Hit Rate (model)

Poisson estimate from Nottingham (1.77 / 1.77 per match) and Arsenal (1.26 / 1.26). Expected total: 3.03. Note: card markets are heavily referee-driven — combine with Referee Effect.

Line

P(Over)

Over %

Under %

Fair odds

2.5

58.3%

41.7%

1.71

3.5

35.9%

64.1%

2.78

4.5

19.0%

81.0%

5.27

5.5

8.7%

91.3%

11.50

6.5

3.5%

96.5%

28.54

Shots

Per-match rolling average

NottinghamArsenal

0SHOTS / MATCH0

0ON TARGET0

0CONCEDED0

0ON TARGET CONC.0

Total Shots — Line Hit Rate (model)

Poisson estimate from Nottingham (12.40 / 11.05 per match) and Arsenal (12.63 / 9.17). Expected total: 22.63. Total shots includes off-target attempts.

Line

P(Over)

Over %

Under %

Fair odds

18.5

80.5%

19.5%

1.24

20.5

66.2%

33.8%

1.51

22.5

49.6%

50.4%

2.01

24.5

33.6%

66.4%

2.98

26.5

20.4%

79.6%

4.90

Total SoT — Line Hit Rate (model)

Poisson estimate from Nottingham (4.25 / 4.05 per match) and Arsenal (4.46 / 2.92). Expected total: 7.84. Shots on target only — typically half the total shot count.

Line

P(Over)

Over %

Under %

Fair odds

6.5

66.7%

33.3%

1.50

7.5

52.4%

47.6%

1.91

8.5

38.5%

61.5%

2.60

9.5

26.4%

73.6%

3.79

10.5

16.9%

83.1%

5.93

11.5

10.1%

89.9%

9.93

Combos & Specials

Combo Bet Hit Rate

How often each team has hit common combo bets (Win+BTTS, Win-to-Nil, Win+Over 2.5) — overall and against specific tiers. Cells suppressed when sample < 5 matches.

Nottingham

Win + BTTS

season

22.7%

vs top

11.1%

vs mid

16.7%

vs bottom

40%

Win to Nil

season

18.2%

vs top

22.2%

vs mid

16.7%

vs bottom

20%

Win + Over 2.5

season

31.8%

vs top

11.1%

vs mid

33.3%

vs bottom

60%

Loss + BTTS

season

4.5%

vs top

11.1%

vs mid

0%

vs bottom

0%

Draw + Under 2.5

season

27.3%

vs top

33.3%

vs mid

33.3%

vs bottom

20%

Scored in Both Halves

season

27.3%

vs top

11.1%

vs mid

50%

vs bottom

20%

Arsenal

Win + BTTS

season

11.1%

vs top

10%

vs mid

0%

vs bottom

20%

Win to Nil

season

48.1%

vs top

30%

vs mid

80%

vs bottom

80%

Win + Over 2.5

season

22.2%

vs top

10%

vs mid

20%

vs bottom

20%

Loss + BTTS

season

14.8%

vs top

10%

vs mid

20%

vs bottom

0%

Draw + Under 2.5

season

18.5%

vs top

40%

vs mid

0%

vs bottom

0%

Scored in Both Halves

season

22.2%

vs top

20%

vs mid

0%

vs bottom

20%

Unbeaten Run

Consecutive matches without losing — the safer side of Double Chance / DNB

Nottingham

lost last match

0

Arsenal

4 matches unbeaten

4

Win % Excluding Draws

How often each team wins when the match doesn't end in a draw — DNB anchor

Nottingham

33.3%

1W · 2D · 2L · draw rate 40%

Arsenal

80%

4W · 0D · 1L · draw rate 0%

HIDDEN PATTERNS

Nottingham vs Arsenal

The Cocoa Effect! When cocoa futures close higher and Arsenal playArsenal SCORE
14/14Applies today
FTSE in the green! When the London market closes up and Arsenal playArsenal SCORE
10/10Applies today
Sugar rush on matchday! When sugar futures close higher and Arsenal playArsenal SCORE
14/15Applies today
OJ futures pop! When orange-juice futures close higher and Arsenal playArsenal SCORE
11/12Applies today
The Sunday Factor! When Nottingham play on a SundayNottingham SCORE
8/8Applies today

Match Insights

Betting Trends

No betting data available for this market yet.

MATCH INSIGHT

Nottingham vs Arsenal

Away team corners
Nottingham4.2 /match
Arsenal4.4 /match

League bests

BEST OVERALL

#1IK Sirius2.32 poäng/match
#2Hammarby IF1.95 poäng/match
#3Djurgardens IF1.86 poäng/match

BEST ATTACK

#1IK Sirius2.36 mål/match
#2Hammarby IF2.23 mål/match
#3Djurgardens IF2.14 mål/match

BEST DEFENCE

#1Hammarby IF0.91 insläppta/match
#2GAIS0.91 insläppta/match
#3Djurgardens IF0.95 insläppta/match

BEST FORM

#1IK Sirius80% vinster senaste 5
#2IF Elfsborg60% vinster senaste 5
#3Malmo FF60% vinster senaste 5

BEST GOAL DIFFERENCE

#1Hammarby IF+29
#2Djurgardens IF+26
#3IK Sirius+24

★ PLAYERSWho decides this match.

PLAYER PROFILE

Nottingham vs Arsenal

Nottingham

Gibbs-White, Morgan
0G
0A
0
Morato
0G
0A
0
Kalimuendo, Arnaud
0G
0A
0

Arsenal

Tzolis, Christos
0G
0A
0
Dowman, Max
0G
0A
0
Merino, Mikel
0G
0A
0

TOP SCORERS

1
Lien, Kristian StromlandDJU
16
2
Ure, RobbieSIR
15
3
Abraham, PaulosHIF
14
4
Bjerkebo, IsakSIR
13
5
Lindgren, GustavHAC
12
6
Botheim, ErikMAL
10
7
Lind, VictorHIF
9
8
Bergstrom, JacobMJA
9
9
Christofferson, NoahORG
8
10
Hegland, Bo AsulvDJU
8

Top Assists

1
Hegland, Bo AsulvDJU
14
2
Lind, VictorHIF
13
3
Haksabanovic, SeadMAL
8
4
Bjerkebo, IsakSIR
7
5
Sana, TobiasORG
6
6
Berg, OliverBRO
6
7
Hansen, MadsBRO
6
8
Heintz, TobiasIFK
5
9
Krusnell, OscarSIR
5
10
Lindberg, JuliusHAC
5

★ MATCH INFOVenue, ref, weather.

NNottingham

AArsenal

Premier LeagueSun 18 Oct, 17:30

Round

Premier League matchweek

7

VenueCity GroundNottingham · England · 30,404

Historical H2H (8 meetings)

Avg goals: 2.25 · BTTS: 25% · Over 2.5: 63% · Clean sheet either side: 75%

DateMatchScoreComp.

17 Jan 26Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal FC0–0—

13 Sept 25Arsenal FC vs Nottingham Forest3–0—

26 Feb 25Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal FC0–0—

23 Nov 24Arsenal FC vs Nottingham Forest3–0—

30 Jan 24Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal FC1–2—

12 Aug 23Arsenal FC vs Nottingham Forest2–1—

20 May 23Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal FC1–0—

30 Oct 22Arsenal FC vs Nottingham Forest5–0—

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