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BrightonvsAston Villa
Match
★ THE AI READEvery signal we found, grouped.
BrightonvsAston Villa
CORRECT SCORE

0-0 leads — model's flat-curve pick

BRI
BRIGHTON
0–0
AV
ASTON VILLA
57% · most likely outcome (next: 1-0 at 43%)

Sums to 0 — model's expectation runs at 2.90. Lean only.

Brighton 0-0
BTTS

Brighton clean sheets 28% of the time

28%
Brighton CS
35%
Aston Villa CS
Clean-sheet rate · last 10

Aston Villa keep one in 3. The lockdown read isn't fanciful at this price.

Both teams to score · No
GOALS

Both attacks fire — 2.6 goals expected, line is 2.5

Brighton
1.3
Aston Villa
1.6

Brighton 1.3 g/m, Aston Villa 1.6. Edge is mild — line and model are close.

Over 2.5 Goals
Alt:Over 2.53.45Over 2.51.54
★ ALL MARKETSCompare every line.
★ POPULAR VALUE BETSWhere the crowd is putting their money — value picks only (1.50–5.00).
Brighton to win
Match
Aston Villa to win
Match
Full Time
Brighton to Win to Nil
Brighton to Win At Least One Half
Aston Villa to Win At Least One Half
Aston Villa to Win to Nil
Aston Villa to Win and Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score - 2nd Half
Brighton to Win and Both Teams To Score
Aston Villa To Score - 1st Half
Brighton To Score - 1st Half
Draw and Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score - 1st Half
Goal in Both Halves
Total Goals
LineOverUnder
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
Total Goals by Aston Villa
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
2.5
Total Goals by Brighton
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
2.5
Total Goals by Aston Villa Odd/Even
Total Goals by Brighton Odd/Even
Total Goals Odd/Even
Double Chance
Double Chance - 1st Half
Double Chance - 2nd Half
Draw No Bet - 2nd Half
Draw No Bet - 1st Half
Draw No Bet
Total Goals - 1st Half
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
Total Goals - 2nd Half
LineUnderOver
1.5
2.5
3-Way Handicap - 1st Half
Line1X
Brighton
3-Way Handicap - 2nd Half
Line1X
Brighton
Brighton
2nd Half
Half Time
★ DEEP STATSForm, history, edge.

Form & Hierarchy

FORM

Last 5 matches
HomeBrighton
AwayAston Villa
Win Rate vs Table Tier
Each team's win % against opponents in the top, middle, and bottom thirds of the table this season.
Brighton
vs Top tier
30%
3W·1D·6L (10)
vs Mid tier
29%
2W·2D·3L (7)
vs Bottom tier
50%
5W·4D·1L (10)
Aston Villa
vs Top tier
75%
9W·0D·3L (12)
vs Mid tier
44%
4W·2D·3L (9)
vs Bottom tier
17%
1W·3D·2L (6)

Momentum Meter

BrightonAston Villa
▼MOMENTUM▲
1.20PPG (LAST 5)1.40
24%CLEAN-SHEET WIN RATE31%

League Position

3Manchester United71pts
4Aston Villa65pts
5Liverpool FC60pts
6AFC Bournemouth57pts

League table

#TeamPGDPts
1Arsenal FC38+4485
2Manchester City38+4278
3Manchester United38+1971
4Aston Villa38+765
5Liverpool FC38+1060

Goals & BTTS

GOAL PROFILE

Brighton vs Aston Villa
Brighton65 goals
1st half0%
2nd half0%
52 matches analysed
Aston Villa110 goals
1st half0%
2nd half0%
65 matches analysed
Team Goals Distribution (model)
Probability of each team scoring 0, 1, 2, or 3+ goals — anchor for Team Total Goals markets.
Brighton — expected: 1.21 goals
0
29.8%
1
36.1%
2
21.8%
3+
12.3%
Aston Villa — expected: 1.42 goals
0
24.3%
1
34.4%
2
24.3%
3+
17.0%
Total Goals — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Brighton (1.28 scored / 1.21 conceded per match) and Aston Villa (1.62 / 1.14). Expected total: 2.63.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
0.5
92.8%
7.2%
1.08
1.5
73.7%
26.3%
1.36
2.5
48.8%
51.2%
2.05
3.5
26.9%
73.1%
3.71
4.5
12.6%
87.4%
7.93
5.5
5.1%
94.9%
19.65
Compare the fair-odds column against the bookmaker's Over price — significant gaps either way are value flags. Model assumes Poisson-distributed goals and average attack/defence; doesn't yet adjust for home advantage or vs-tier opponent strength (planned, see VS Engine extension spec).
BTTS Rate vs Table Tier
Both teams' BTTS rate broken down by opponent's league position. Spot the gap between season-overall and tier-specific rates.
Brightonseason 48.3%
vs Top tier
40%
(10)
vs Mid tier
42.9%
(7)
vs Bottom tier
60%
(10)
Aston Villaseason 48.3%
vs Top tier
41.7%
(12)
vs Mid tier
33.3%
(9)
vs Bottom tier
66.7%
(6)
Clean Sheet Rate
% of matches with no goals conceded — opponent's path to BTTS No or Win-to-Nil
Brighton
27.6%
Aston Villa
34.5%
Clean-sheet win rate: Brighton 24.1% · Aston Villa 31%

Scoring Patterns

BrightonAston Villa
31%SCORED FIRST41%
28%FAILED TO SCORE21%
52%LEADING AT HT66%
31%CONCEDED 2+31%

HEAD-TO-HEAD

Aston Villa1 - 0Brighton & Hove Albion
Brighton & Hove Albion3 - 4Aston Villa
Brighton & Hove Albion0 - 3Aston Villa
Aston Villa2 - 2Brighton & Hove Albion

0 meetings: 0 home wins, 0 draws, 0 away wins

Half-Time Behaviour

Half-Time Lead Rate
How often each team is leading / drawing / trailing at HT
Brightonlead 31% · draw 34% · trail 34%
Aston Villalead 41% · draw 34% · trail 24%
HT/FT Combinations (model)
Joint half-time × full-time rates blended from Brighton's and Aston Villa's half-by-half records. Heatmap intensity = relative likelihood.
Home / Home
1/1
26.2%
Home / Draw
1/X
10.0%
Home / Away
1/2
10.0%
Draw / Home
X/1
14.9%
Draw / Draw
X/X
10.1%
Draw / Away
X/2
9.5%
Away / Home
2/1
12.4%
Away / Draw
2/X
12.4%
Away / Away
2/2
16.9%
Independence assumption between halves is an approximation — true joint frequencies require per-match HT+FT pairs (VS Engine extension planned). Use for relative comparison rather than absolute probability.
First-Half Tendency
How each team starts matches — anchor for 1H markets, HT/FT, Half-Time Result.
Stat
Brighton
Aston Villa
Scored first %
31%
41.4%
Conceded first %
—
—
Failed to score %
27.6%
20.7%

Set Pieces & Discipline

Corners

Per-match rolling average
BrightonAston Villa
0CORNERS FOR0
0CORNERS AGAINST0
0NET DIFF0
Total Corners — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Brighton (4.69 / 5.17 per match) and Aston Villa (5.34 / 4.48). Expected total: 9.84. Compare the fair-odds column against the bookie's Over price for value.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
7.5
76.5%
23.5%
1.31
8.5
64.9%
35.1%
1.54
9.5
52.2%
47.8%
1.92
10.5
39.7%
60.3%
2.52
11.5
28.5%
71.5%
3.51
12.5
19.4%
80.6%
5.17
Corner Dominance
Expected corners: Brighton 4.6, Aston Villa 5.3. Difference: -0.7.
Brighton 47%53% Aston Villa

Cards & Discipline

BrightonAston Villa
0YELLOW / MATCH0
0RED / MATCH0
0TOTAL / MATCH0
Total Cards — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Brighton (2.17 / 2.17 per match) and Aston Villa (1.52 / 1.52). Expected total: 3.69. Note: card markets are heavily referee-driven — combine with Referee Effect.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
2.5
71.3%
28.7%
1.40
3.5
50.4%
49.6%
1.99
4.5
31.1%
68.9%
3.22
5.5
16.8%
83.2%
5.94
6.5
8.1%
91.9%
12.36

Shots

Per-match rolling average
BrightonAston Villa
0SHOTS / MATCH0
0ON TARGET0
0CONCEDED0
0ON TARGET CONC.0
Total Shots — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Brighton (12.48 / 11.24 per match) and Aston Villa (12.21 / 10.66). Expected total: 23.30. Total shots includes off-target attempts.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
18.5
84.0%
16.0%
1.19
20.5
71.1%
28.9%
1.41
22.5
55.2%
44.8%
1.81
24.5
38.9%
61.1%
2.57
26.5
24.7%
75.3%
4.05
Total SoT — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Brighton (4.55 / 4.07 per match) and Aston Villa (4.83 / 4.41). Expected total: 8.93. Shots on target only — typically half the total shot count.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
6.5
78.7%
21.3%
1.27
7.5
66.8%
33.2%
1.50
8.5
53.5%
46.5%
1.87
9.5
40.3%
59.7%
2.48
10.5
28.6%
71.4%
3.50
11.5
19.0%
81.0%
5.26

Combos & Specials

Combo Bet Hit Rate
How often each team has hit common combo bets (Win+BTTS, Win-to-Nil, Win+Over 2.5) — overall and against specific tiers. Cells suppressed when sample < 5 matches.
Brighton
Win + BTTS
season
13.8%
vs top
10%
vs mid
14.3%
vs bottom
10%
Win to Nil
season
24.1%
vs top
20%
vs mid
14.3%
vs bottom
40%
Win + Over 2.5
season
20.7%
vs top
20%
vs mid
14.3%
vs bottom
20%
Loss + BTTS
season
13.8%
vs top
20%
vs mid
14.3%
vs bottom
10%
Draw + Under 2.5
season
17.2%
vs top
10%
vs mid
28.6%
vs bottom
20%
Scored in Both Halves
season
34.5%
vs top
30%
vs mid
0%
vs bottom
60%
Aston Villa
Win + BTTS
season
20.7%
vs top
25%
vs mid
22.2%
vs bottom
0%
Win to Nil
season
31%
vs top
50%
vs mid
22.2%
vs bottom
16.7%
Win + Over 2.5
season
31%
vs top
50%
vs mid
22.2%
vs bottom
0%
Loss + BTTS
season
13.8%
vs top
16.7%
vs mid
0%
vs bottom
16.7%
Draw + Under 2.5
season
13.8%
vs top
0%
vs mid
22.2%
vs bottom
33.3%
Scored in Both Halves
season
31%
vs top
41.7%
vs mid
22.2%
vs bottom
33.3%
Unbeaten Run
Consecutive matches without losing — the safer side of Double Chance / DNB
Brighton
1 match unbeaten
1
Aston Villa
lost last match
0
Win % Excluding Draws
How often each team wins when the match doesn't end in a draw — DNB anchor
Brighton
40%
2W · 0D · 3L · draw rate 0%
Aston Villa
50%
2W · 1D · 2L · draw rate 20%

HIDDEN PATTERNS

Brighton vs Aston Villa
  • Coffee on the rise! When coffee futures close higher and Aston Villa playAston Villa SCORE
    11/11Applies today
  • The Prime Number Effect! When Aston Villa play on prime datesAston Villa SCORE
    7/8Applies today
  • Earth-sign solidity! When the sun is in Capricorn/Taurus/Virgo and Brighton playBrighton SCORE
    7/8Applies today
  • The Prime Number Effect! When Brighton play on prime datesTIGHT GAME (Under 2.5)
    9/12Applies today
  • The Prime Number Effect! When Brighton play on prime datesBrighton SCORE
    9/12Applies today

Match Insights

Betting Trends
No betting data available for this market yet.

League bests

BEST OVERALL
  1. #1IK Sirius2.67 poäng/match
  2. #2Hammarby IF1.77 poäng/match
  3. #3BK Hacken1.67 poäng/match
BEST ATTACK
  1. #1IK Sirius2.75 mål/match
  2. #2Hammarby IF2.15 mål/match
  3. #3Djurgardens IF2.09 mål/match
BEST DEFENCE
  1. #1GAIS0.92 insläppta/match
  2. #2Hammarby IF1.08 insläppta/match
  3. #3IF Elfsborg1.08 insläppta/match
BEST FORM
  1. #1IK Sirius80% vinster senaste 5
  2. #2Malmo FF60% vinster senaste 5
  3. #3IF Elfsborg60% vinster senaste 5
BEST GOAL DIFFERENCE
  1. #1IK Sirius+18
  2. #2Hammarby IF+14
  3. #3Djurgardens IF+8
★ PLAYERSWho decides this match.

PLAYER PROFILE

Brighton vs Aston Villa
Brighton
  • Welbeck, Danny
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Hinshelwood, Jack
    0G
    0A
    0
  • De Cuyper, Maxim
    0G
    0A
    0
Aston Villa
  • Malen, Donyell
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Watkins, Ollie
    0G
    0A
    0
  • McGinn, John
    0G
    0A
    0

TOP SCORERS

  1. 1
    Ure, RobbieSIR
    12
  2. 2
    Botheim, ErikMAL
    10
  3. 3
    Bjerkebo, IsakSIR
    10
  4. 4
    Ladefoged, MikkelVAS
    9
  5. 5
    Lien, Kristian StromlandDJU
    7
  6. 6
    Abraham, PaulosHIF
    7
  7. 7
    Heintz, TobiasIFK
    6
  8. 8
    Besara, NahirHIF
    5
  9. 9
    Lind, VictorHIF
    5
  10. 10
    Bergstrom, JacobMJA
    5

Top Assists

  1. 1
    Hegland, Bo AsulvDJU
    8
  2. 2
    Berg, OliverBRO
    5
  3. 3
    Haksabanovic, SeadMAL
    5
  4. 4
    Krusnell, OscarSIR
    5
  5. 5
    Hansen, MadsBRO
    5
  6. 6
    Sana, TobiasORG
    4
  7. 7
    Besara, NahirHIF
    4
  8. 8
    Layouni, AmorHAC
    4
  9. 9
    Lushaku, IsmetVAS
    4
  10. 10
    Milovanovic, WilliamGAIS
    4
★ MATCH INFOVenue, ref, weather.
BBrighton
AVAston Villa
Premier LeagueSun 23 Aug, 15:00
Historical H2H (4 meetings)
Avg goals: 3.75 · BTTS: 50% · Over 2.5: 75% · Clean sheet either side: 50%
DateMatchScoreComp.
11 Feb 26Aston Villa vs Brighton & Hove Albion1–0—
03 Dec 25Brighton & Hove Albion vs Aston Villa3–4—
02 Apr 25Brighton & Hove Albion vs Aston Villa0–3—
30 Dec 24Aston Villa vs Brighton & Hove Albion2–2—
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