junibet
AlmeriavsMálaga
Match
★ THE AI READEvery signal we found, grouped.
AlmeriavsMálaga
BTTS

Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10

77%
Almeria BTTS
67%
Málaga BTTS
Last 10 matches

Almeria at 77%, Málaga at 67%. The H2H rate is 72% — the model copies it.

Both teams to score
GOALS

Both attacks fire — 3.2 goals expected, line is 2.5

Almeria
1.8
Málaga
1.9

Almeria averaging 1.8, Málaga 1.9. The number sits clean above 2.5.

Over 2.5 Goals
Alt:Over 2.51.81Over 2.54.30
CORRECT SCORE

0-0 leads — model's flat-curve pick

ALM
ALMERIA
0–0
MÁL
MÁLAGA
42% · most likely outcome (next: 1-0 at 33%)

Sums to 0 — model's expectation runs at 3.76. Lean only.

Almeria 0-0
CORNERS

Almeria live in the opposition third — 8.6 corners/match between them

Almeria avg 3.9Málaga avg 4.7
3.9
4.7
total scale: 0 → 14

Combined 8.6/m vs the 7.5 line — only 1.1 over. The shape is right, the margin is thin.

Over 7.5 Corners
Alt:Over 6.53.05Over 6.54.70
MATCH RESULT

Málaga unbeaten in 5

WDWWD

Hard to break right now. Málaga to win at 3.35 respects the pattern without overpaying.

Málaga to win
★ ALL MARKETSCompare every line.
★ POPULAR VALUE BETSWhere the crowd is putting their money — value picks only (1.50–5.00).
Almeria to win
Match
Málaga to win
Match
Draw
Match
Yes
Match
Over (Over)
Match
Under (Under)
Match
Over (Over)
Match
Under (Under)
Match
Full Time
Málaga to Win At Least One Half
Málaga to Win to Nil
Almeria to Win to Nil
Almeria to Win At Least One Half
Both Teams To Score - 1st Half
Goal in Both Halves
Málaga to Win and Both Teams To Score
Almeria to Win and Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score - 2nd Half
Both Teams To Score
Total Goals
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
Under—
Total Goals by Málaga
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
Under—
Total Goals by Almeria
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
Under—
Double Chance - 1st Half
Double Chance - 2nd Half
Double Chance
Draw No Bet
Draw No Bet - 2nd Half
Draw No Bet - 1st Half
Total Goals - 1st Half
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
2.5
Total Goals - 2nd Half
LineUnderOver
0.5
1.5
2.5
Total Goals by Almeria - 1st Half
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
Total Goals by Málaga - 1st Half
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
Total Goals by Almeria - 2nd Half
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
2.5
Total Goals by Málaga - 2nd Half
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
3-Way Handicap - 1st Half
Line1X
Almeria
Almeria
2nd Half
First Goal (Draw: No Goals)
Half Time
Total Corners
LineUnderOver
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
11.5
12.5
13.5
Total Corners - 1st Half
LineOverUnder
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
Total Corners - 2nd Half
LineOverUnder
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
Total Corners by Almeria
LineOverUnder
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
Total Corners by Málaga
LineOverUnder
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
Total Corners By Málaga - 1st Half
LineOverUnder
1.5
2.5
Total Corners By Almeria - 1st Half
LineOverUnder
1.5
2.5
3.5
Total Corners By Málaga - 2nd Half
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
Total Corners By Almeria - 2nd Half
LineOverUnder
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
Corners 3-Way Handicap
Line1X
Almeria
Almeria
Almeria
Almeria
Almeria
Almeria
Almeria
Almeria
Next Corner, No Corner No Bet (1)
Most Corners
Most Corners - 2nd Half
Most Corners - 1st Half
Total Shots on Target
LineOver2
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
Total Shots on Target by Almeria
LineOver2
3.5
4.5
5.5
Total Shots on Target by Málaga
LineOver2
3.5
4.5
5.5
Most Shots on Target
First Goal Scorer
Patrick Soko
No goal
Eneko Jauregi
Nicolás Melamed
Carlos Puga
Arnau Puigmal
Jokin Gabilondo
Iddrisu Baba
Victor Garcia Marin
Francisco Montero
Jon Morcillo
Dani Lorenzo
Sergio Arribas
Diego Murillo
Carlos Ruiz Rubio
David Larrubia
Dion Lopy
Stefan Dzodic
Nélson Monte
Rodrigo Ely
Léo Baptistão
Dani Sánchez
Gui Guedes
Juan 'Chumi' Brandáriz
Federico Bonini
Daijiro Chirino
Izan Merino
Marcos Luna
Adrián Niño
Álex Centelles
Álex Muñoz
Miguel De La Fuente
Carlos Dotor
Einar Galilea
Adri Embarba
Julen Lobete
Rafa Rodríguez
Ramón Enríquez
Joaquín Muñoz
Darko Brasanac
Haitam Abaida
Aarón Ochoa
Carlos Ruiz Rubio6 markets
To Score 1
To score at least 2 goals 2
To score at least 3 goals 3
To score from a header 1
To score from outside the penalty box 1
To score or give an assist 1
Adri Embarba4 markets
To Score 1
To score at least 2 goals 2
To score from outside the penalty box 1
To score or give an assist 1
Adrián Niño4 markets
To Score 1
To score at least 2 goals 2
To score from a header 1
To score or give an assist 1
David Larrubia4 markets
To Score 1
To score at least 2 goals 2
To score from outside the penalty box 1
To score or give an assist 1
Eneko Jauregi4 markets
To Score 1
To score at least 2 goals 2
To score from a header 1
To score or give an assist 1
Jon Morcillo4 markets
To Score 1
To score at least 2 goals 2
To score from outside the penalty box 1
To score or give an assist 1
Léo Baptistão4 markets
To Score 1
To score at least 2 goals 2
To score from outside the penalty box 1
To score or give an assist 1
Miguel De La Fuente4 markets
To Score 1
To score at least 2 goals 2
To score from a header 1
To score or give an assist 1
Nicolás Melamed4 markets
To Score 1
To score at least 2 goals 2
To score from outside the penalty box 1
To score or give an assist 1
Sergio Arribas4 markets
To Score 1
To score at least 2 goals 2
To score from outside the penalty box 1
To score or give an assist 1
Arnau Puigmal3 markets
To Score 1
To score at least 2 goals 2
To score or give an assist 1
Haitam Abaida3 markets
To Score 1
To score from outside the penalty box 1
To score or give an assist 1
Julen Lobete3 markets
To Score 1
To score from outside the penalty box 1
To score or give an assist 1
Patrick Soko3 markets
To Score 1
To score from outside the penalty box 1
To score or give an assist 1
Rafa Rodríguez3 markets
To Score 1
To score from outside the penalty box 1
To score or give an assist 1
Aarón Ochoa2 markets
To Score 1
To score or give an assist 1
Álex Centelles2 markets
To Score 1
To score or give an assist 1
Álex Muñoz2 markets
To Score 1
To score or give an assist 1
Carlos Dotor2 markets
To Score 1
To score or give an assist 1
Carlos Puga2 markets
To Score 1
To score or give an assist 1
Daijiro Chirino2 markets
To Score 1
To score or give an assist 1
Dani Lorenzo2 markets
To Score 1
To score or give an assist 1
Dani Sánchez2 markets
To Score 1
To score or give an assist 1
Darko Brasanac2 markets
To Score 1
To score or give an assist 1
Diego Murillo2 markets
To Score 1
To score or give an assist 1
Dion Lopy2 markets
To Score 1
To score or give an assist 1
Einar Galilea2 markets
To Score 1
To score or give an assist 1
Federico Bonini2 markets
To Score 1
To score or give an assist 1
Francisco Montero2 markets
To Score 1
To score or give an assist 1
Gui Guedes2 markets
To Score 1
To score or give an assist 1
Iddrisu Baba2 markets
To Score 1
To score or give an assist 1
Izan Merino2 markets
To Score 1
To score or give an assist 1
Joaquín Muñoz2 markets
To Score 1
To score or give an assist 1
Jokin Gabilondo2 markets
To Score 1
To score or give an assist 1
Juan 'Chumi' Brandáriz2 markets
To Score 1
To score or give an assist 1
Marcos Luna2 markets
To Score 1
To score or give an assist 1
Nélson Monte2 markets
To Score 1
To score or give an assist 1
Ramón Enríquez2 markets
To Score 1
To score or give an assist 1
Rodrigo Ely2 markets
To Score 1
To score or give an assist 1
Stefan Dzodic2 markets
To Score 1
To score or give an assist 1
Victor Garcia Marin2 markets
To Score 1
To score or give an assist 1
★ DEEP STATSForm, history, edge.

Form & Hierarchy

FORM

Last 5 matches
HomeAlmeria
AwayMálaga
Win Rate vs Table Tier
Each team's win % against opponents in the top, middle, and bottom thirds of the table this season.
Almeria
vs Top tier
27%
3W·3D·5L (11)
vs Mid tier
70%
7W·1D·2L (10)
vs Bottom tier
63%
5W·1D·2L (8)
Málaga
vs Top tier
54%
7W·4D·2L (13)
vs Mid tier
88%
7W·1D·0L (8)
vs Bottom tier
38%
3W·3D·2L (8)

Momentum Meter

AlmeriaMálaga
▲MOMENTUM▼
1.40PPG (LAST 5)2.20
7%CLEAN-SHEET WIN RATE27%

League Position

1Racing Santander82pts
2RC Deportivo De La Coruna77pts
3UD Almeria74pts
4Malaga CF73pts

League table

#TeamPGDPts
1Racing Santander42+2982
2RC Deportivo De La Coruna42+2177
3UD Almeria42+1874
4Malaga CF42+2373
5UD Las Palmas42+1773

Goals & BTTS

GOAL PROFILE

Almeria vs Málaga
Almeria115 goals
1st half0%
2nd half0%
61 matches analysed
Málaga120 goals
1st half0%
2nd half0%
60 matches analysed
Team Goals Distribution (model)
Probability of each team scoring 0, 1, 2, or 3+ goals — anchor for Team Total Goals markets.
Almeria — expected: 1.48 goals
0
22.8%
1
33.7%
2
24.9%
3+
18.6%
Málaga — expected: 1.75 goals
0
17.4%
1
30.4%
2
26.6%
3+
25.6%
Total Goals — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Almeria (1.83 scored / 1.57 conceded per match) and Málaga (1.93 / 1.13). Expected total: 3.23.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
0.5
96.0%
4.0%
1.04
1.5
83.3%
16.7%
1.20
2.5
62.6%
37.4%
1.60
3.5
40.4%
59.6%
2.47
4.5
22.5%
77.5%
4.45
5.5
10.9%
89.1%
9.19
Compare the fair-odds column against the bookmaker's Over price — significant gaps either way are value flags. Model assumes Poisson-distributed goals and average attack/defence; doesn't yet adjust for home advantage or vs-tier opponent strength (planned, see VS Engine extension spec).
BTTS Rate vs Table Tier
Both teams' BTTS rate broken down by opponent's league position. Spot the gap between season-overall and tier-specific rates.
Almeriaseason 76.7%
vs Top tier
72.7%
(11)
vs Mid tier
90%
(10)
vs Bottom tier
62.5%
(8)
Málagaseason 66.7%
vs Top tier
69.2%
(13)
vs Mid tier
50%
(8)
vs Bottom tier
75%
(8)
Clean Sheet Rate
% of matches with no goals conceded — opponent's path to BTTS No or Win-to-Nil
Almeria
13.3%
Málaga
33.3%
Clean-sheet win rate: Almeria 6.7% · Málaga 26.7%

Scoring Patterns

AlmeriaMálaga
33%SCORED FIRST43%
17%FAILED TO SCORE7%
60%LEADING AT HT73%
57%CONCEDED 2+30%

HEAD-TO-HEAD

UD Almeria3 - 2Malaga
Malaga2 - 1UD Almeria
UD Almeria1 - 2Malaga
UD Almeria2 - 2Malaga
Malaga1 - 1UD Almeria
Malaga0 - 1UD Almeria

0 meetings: 0 home wins, 0 draws, 0 away wins

Half-Time Behaviour

Half-Time Lead Rate
How often each team is leading / drawing / trailing at HT
Almerialead 33% · draw 50% · trail 17%
Málagalead 43% · draw 37% · trail 20%
HT/FT Combinations (model)
Joint half-time × full-time rates blended from Almeria's and Málaga's half-by-half records. Heatmap intensity = relative likelihood.
Home / Home
1/1
27.6%
Home / Draw
1/X
10.8%
Home / Away
1/2
10.8%
Draw / Home
X/1
17.7%
Draw / Draw
X/X
13.2%
Draw / Away
X/2
12.4%
Away / Home
2/1
7.7%
Away / Draw
2/X
7.7%
Away / Away
2/2
10.6%
Independence assumption between halves is an approximation — true joint frequencies require per-match HT+FT pairs (VS Engine extension planned). Use for relative comparison rather than absolute probability.
First-Half Tendency
How each team starts matches — anchor for 1H markets, HT/FT, Half-Time Result.
Stat
Almeria
Málaga
Scored first %
33.3%
43.3%
Conceded first %
—
—
Failed to score %
16.7%
6.7%

Set Pieces & Discipline

Corners

Per-match rolling average
AlmeriaMálaga
0CORNERS FOR0
0CORNERS AGAINST0
0NET DIFF0
Total Corners — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Almeria (3.93 / 5.07 per match) and Málaga (4.67 / 4.53). Expected total: 9.10. Compare the fair-odds column against the bookie's Over price for value.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
7.5
68.8%
31.2%
1.45
8.5
55.7%
44.3%
1.79
9.5
42.6%
57.4%
2.35
10.5
30.6%
69.4%
3.27
11.5
20.7%
79.3%
4.84
12.5
13.2%
86.8%
7.60
Corner Dominance
Expected corners: Almeria 4.2, Málaga 4.9. Difference: -0.6.
Almeria 46%54% Málaga

Cards & Discipline

AlmeriaMálaga
0YELLOW / MATCH0
0RED / MATCH0
0TOTAL / MATCH0
Total Cards — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Almeria (2.57 / 2.57 per match) and Málaga (2.33 / 2.33). Expected total: 4.90. Note: card markets are heavily referee-driven — combine with Referee Effect.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
2.5
86.7%
13.3%
1.15
3.5
72.1%
27.9%
1.39
4.5
54.2%
45.8%
1.85
5.5
36.6%
63.4%
2.73
6.5
22.3%
77.7%
4.48

Shots

Per-match rolling average
AlmeriaMálaga
0SHOTS / MATCH0
0ON TARGET0
0CONCEDED0
0ON TARGET CONC.0
Total Shots — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Almeria (12.37 / 11.77 per match) and Málaga (12.83 / 10.67). Expected total: 23.82. Total shots includes off-target attempts.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
18.5
86.4%
13.6%
1.16
20.5
74.6%
25.4%
1.34
22.5
59.4%
40.6%
1.68
24.5
43.1%
56.9%
2.32
26.5
28.3%
71.7%
3.53
Total SoT — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Almeria (5.23 / 4.97 per match) and Málaga (5.87 / 4.13). Expected total: 10.10. Shots on target only — typically half the total shot count.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
6.5
87.6%
12.4%
1.14
7.5
78.9%
21.1%
1.27
8.5
67.8%
32.2%
1.47
9.5
55.5%
44.5%
1.80
10.5
42.9%
57.1%
2.33
11.5
31.5%
68.5%
3.18

Combos & Specials

Combo Bet Hit Rate
How often each team has hit common combo bets (Win+BTTS, Win-to-Nil, Win+Over 2.5) — overall and against specific tiers. Cells suppressed when sample < 5 matches.
Almeria
Win + BTTS
season
43.3%
vs top
27.3%
vs mid
60%
vs bottom
50%
Win to Nil
season
6.7%
vs top
0%
vs mid
10%
vs bottom
12.5%
Win + Over 2.5
season
46.7%
vs top
27.3%
vs mid
60%
vs bottom
62.5%
Loss + BTTS
season
23.3%
vs top
36.4%
vs mid
20%
vs bottom
0%
Draw + Under 2.5
season
13.3%
vs top
27.3%
vs mid
10%
vs bottom
0%
Scored in Both Halves
season
36.7%
vs top
9.1%
vs mid
50%
vs bottom
62.5%
Málaga
Win + BTTS
season
30%
vs top
30.8%
vs mid
37.5%
vs bottom
25%
Win to Nil
season
26.7%
vs top
23.1%
vs mid
50%
vs bottom
12.5%
Win + Over 2.5
season
36.7%
vs top
38.5%
vs mid
50%
vs bottom
25%
Loss + BTTS
season
16.7%
vs top
15.4%
vs mid
0%
vs bottom
25%
Draw + Under 2.5
season
20%
vs top
30.8%
vs mid
0%
vs bottom
25%
Scored in Both Halves
season
36.7%
vs top
38.5%
vs mid
37.5%
vs bottom
37.5%
Unbeaten Run
Consecutive matches without losing — the safer side of Double Chance / DNB
Almeria
lost last match
0
Málaga
5 matches unbeaten
5
Win % Excluding Draws
How often each team wins when the match doesn't end in a draw — DNB anchor
Almeria
50%
2W · 1D · 2L · draw rate 20%
Málaga
100%
3W · 2D · 0L · draw rate 40%

HIDDEN PATTERNS

Almeria vs Málaga
  • Coffee on the rise! When coffee futures close higher and Málaga playMálaga SCORE
    11/11Applies today
  • Air signs lift off! When the sun is in Aquarius/Gemini/Libra and Málaga playMálaga SCORE
    8/8Applies today
  • FTSE in the green! When the London market closes up and Málaga playMálaga SCORE
    15/15Applies today
  • Coffee on the rise! When coffee futures close higher and Almeria playHOME WIN
    7/8Applies today
  • Coffee on the rise! When coffee futures close higher and Almeria playGOAL FEST (Over 2.5)
    7/8Applies today

Match Insights

Betting Trends
No betting data available for this market yet.

League bests

BEST OVERALL
  1. #1IK Sirius2.8 poäng/match
  2. #2BK Hacken2 poäng/match
  3. #3IF Elfsborg1.64 poäng/match
BEST ATTACK
  1. #1IK Sirius2.7 mål/match
  2. #2Hammarby IF2.18 mål/match
  3. #3Djurgardens IF2.11 mål/match
BEST DEFENCE
  1. #1IK Sirius1 insläppta/match
  2. #2IF Elfsborg1 insläppta/match
  3. #3GAIS1 insläppta/match
BEST FORM
  1. #1IK Sirius80% vinster senaste 5
  2. #2IF Elfsborg60% vinster senaste 5
  3. #3Malmo FF60% vinster senaste 5
BEST GOAL DIFFERENCE
  1. #1IK Sirius+17
  2. #2Hammarby IF+11
  3. #3BK Hacken+6
★ PLAYERSWho decides this match.

PLAYER PROFILE

Almeria vs Málaga
Almeria
  • Arribas, Sergio
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Embarba, Adri
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Fernandez, Andres
    0G
    0A
    0
Málaga
  • Chupete
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Nino, Adrian
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Jauregi Escobar, Eneko
    0G
    0A
    0

TOP SCORERS

  1. 1
    Bjerkebo, IsakSIR
    9
  2. 2
    Ladefoged, MikkelVAS
    6
  3. 3
    Besara, NahirHIF
    5
  4. 4
    Bergstrom, JacobMJA
    5
  5. 5
    Lien, Kristian StromlandDJU
    5
  6. 6
    Abraham, PaulosHIF
    5
  7. 7
    Ure, RobbieSIR
    5
  8. 8
    Lindgren, GustavHAC
    5
  9. 9
    Rosenqvist, CharlieKAL
    5
  10. 10
    Botheim, ErikMAL
    4

Top Assists

  1. 1
    Hegland, Bo AsulvDJU
    7
  2. 2
    Sana, TobiasORG
    4
  3. 3
    Besara, NahirHIF
    4
  4. 4
    Berg, OliverBRO
    4
  5. 5
    Layouni, AmorHAC
    4
  6. 6
    Sundgren, DanielDEG
    3
  7. 7
    Haksabanovic, SeadMAL
    3
  8. 8
    Krusnell, OscarSIR
    3
  9. 9
    Milovanovic, WilliamGAIS
    3
  10. 10
    Hansen, MadsBRO
    3
★ MATCH INFOVenue, ref, weather.
AAlmeria
MMálaga
La Liga 2Sat 20 Jun, 21:00
VenueEstadio de los Juegos MediterraneosAlmeria · Spain · 18,331
Historical H2H (6 meetings)
Avg goals: 3.00 · BTTS: 83% · Over 2.5: 67% · Clean sheet either side: 17%
DateMatchScoreComp.
19 Apr 26UD Almeria vs Malaga CF3–2—
21 Dec 25Malaga CF vs UD Almeria2–1—
26 Jul 25UD Almeria vs Malaga CF1–2—
01 Mar 25UD Almeria vs Malaga CF2–2—
08 Dec 24Malaga CF vs UD Almeria1–1—
27 Jul 24Malaga CF vs UD Almeria0–1—
18+

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