junibet
RomavsFiorentina
Match
★ THE AI READEvery signal we found, grouped.
RomavsFiorentina
BTTS

Roma clean sheets 47% of the time

47%
Roma CS
30%
Fiorentina CS
Clean-sheet rate · last 10

Fiorentina keep one in 3. The lockdown read isn't fanciful at this price.

Both teams to score · No
GOALS

Both attacks fire — 2.8 goals expected, line is 2.5

Roma
1.9
Fiorentina
1.4

Roma 1.9 g/m, Fiorentina 1.4. Edge is mild — line and model are close.

Over 2.5 Goals
Alt:Over 1.51.63Over 1.52.70
★ ALL MARKETSCompare every line.
Full Time
Both Teams To Score
Total Goals
LineOverUnder
1.5
2.5
3.5
Total Goals by Roma
LineOverUnder
1.5
Total Goals by Fiorentina
LineOverUnder
0.5
Total Goals Odd/Even
Double Chance
Draw No Bet
Total Goals - 1st Half
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
Half Time
★ DEEP STATSForm, history, edge.

Form & Hierarchy

FORM

Last 5 matches
HomeRoma
AwayFiorentina
Win Rate vs Table Tier
Each team's win % against opponents in the top, middle, and bottom thirds of the table this season.
Roma
vs Top tier
17%
2W·6D·4L (12)
vs Mid tier
78%
7W·0D·2L (9)
vs Bottom tier
88%
7W·0D·1L (8)
Fiorentina
vs Top tier
46%
6W·3D·4L (13)
vs Mid tier
36%
4W·5D·2L (11)
vs Bottom tier
60%
3W·1D·1L (5)

Momentum Meter

RomaFiorentina
→MOMENTUM▲
3.00PPG (LAST 5)1.20
47%CLEAN-SHEET WIN RATE20%

League Position

1Inter Milano87pts
2SSC Napoli76pts
3AS Roma73pts
4Como 190771pts

League table

#TeamPGDPts
1Inter Milano38+5487
2SSC Napoli38+2276
3AS Roma38+2873
4Como 190738+3671
5AC Milan38+1870

Goals & BTTS

GOAL PROFILE

Roma vs Fiorentina
Roma116 goals
1st half0%
2nd half0%
62 matches analysed
Fiorentina84 goals
1st half0%
2nd half0%
67 matches analysed
Team Goals Distribution (model)
Probability of each team scoring 0, 1, 2, or 3+ goals — anchor for Team Total Goals markets.
Roma — expected: 1.55 goals
0
21.2%
1
32.9%
2
25.5%
3+
20.4%
Fiorentina — expected: 1.22 goals
0
29.5%
1
36.0%
2
22.0%
3+
12.5%
Total Goals — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Roma (1.87 scored / 1.07 conceded per match) and Fiorentina (1.37 / 1.23). Expected total: 2.77.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
0.5
93.7%
6.3%
1.07
1.5
76.4%
23.6%
1.31
2.5
52.3%
47.7%
1.91
3.5
30.1%
69.9%
3.32
4.5
14.8%
85.2%
6.77
5.5
6.3%
93.7%
15.99
Compare the fair-odds column against the bookmaker's Over price — significant gaps either way are value flags. Model assumes Poisson-distributed goals and average attack/defence; doesn't yet adjust for home advantage or vs-tier opponent strength (planned, see VS Engine extension spec).
BTTS Rate vs Table Tier
Both teams' BTTS rate broken down by opponent's league position. Spot the gap between season-overall and tier-specific rates.
Romaseason 46.7%
vs Top tier
83.3%
(12)
vs Mid tier
11.1%
(9)
vs Bottom tier
25%
(8)
Fiorentinaseason 56.7%
vs Top tier
69.2%
(13)
vs Mid tier
45.5%
(11)
vs Bottom tier
40%
(5)
Clean Sheet Rate
% of matches with no goals conceded — opponent's path to BTTS No or Win-to-Nil
Roma
46.7%
Fiorentina
30%
Clean-sheet win rate: Roma 46.7% · Fiorentina 20%

Scoring Patterns

RomaFiorentina
43%SCORED FIRST30%
7%FAILED TO SCORE23%
63%LEADING AT HT57%
30%CONCEDED 2+30%

HEAD-TO-HEAD

AS Roma4 - 0ACF Fiorentina
ACF Fiorentina1 - 2AS Roma
AS Roma1 - 0ACF Fiorentina
ACF Fiorentina5 - 1AS Roma

0 meetings: 0 home wins, 0 draws, 0 away wins

Half-Time Behaviour

Half-Time Lead Rate
How often each team is leading / drawing / trailing at HT
Romalead 43% · draw 40% · trail 17%
Fiorentinalead 30% · draw 43% · trail 27%
HT/FT Combinations (model)
Joint half-time × full-time rates blended from Roma's and Fiorentina's half-by-half records. Heatmap intensity = relative likelihood.
Home / Home
1/1
27.8%
Home / Draw
1/X
8.8%
Home / Away
1/2
8.8%
Draw / Home
X/1
16.6%
Draw / Draw
X/X
14.6%
Draw / Away
X/2
10.5%
Away / Home
2/1
8.5%
Away / Draw
2/X
8.5%
Away / Away
2/2
13.2%
Independence assumption between halves is an approximation — true joint frequencies require per-match HT+FT pairs (VS Engine extension planned). Use for relative comparison rather than absolute probability.
First-Half Tendency
How each team starts matches — anchor for 1H markets, HT/FT, Half-Time Result.
Stat
Roma
Fiorentina
Scored first %
43.3%
30%
Conceded first %
—
—
Failed to score %
6.7%
23.3%

Set Pieces & Discipline

Corners

Per-match rolling average
RomaFiorentina
0CORNERS FOR0
0CORNERS AGAINST0
0NET DIFF0
Total Corners — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Roma (4.90 / 3.77 per match) and Fiorentina (4.33 / 4.20). Expected total: 8.60. Compare the fair-odds column against the bookie's Over price for value.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
7.5
62.7%
37.3%
1.59
8.5
49.1%
50.9%
2.04
9.5
36.0%
64.0%
2.78
10.5
24.8%
75.2%
4.04
11.5
16.0%
84.0%
6.25
12.5
9.7%
90.3%
10.30
Corner Dominance
Expected corners: Roma 4.6, Fiorentina 4.0. Difference: +0.5.
Roma 53%47% Fiorentina

Cards & Discipline

RomaFiorentina
0YELLOW / MATCH0
0RED / MATCH0
0TOTAL / MATCH0
Total Cards — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Roma (1.87 / 1.87 per match) and Fiorentina (2.30 / 2.30). Expected total: 4.17. Note: card markets are heavily referee-driven — combine with Referee Effect.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
2.5
78.6%
21.4%
1.27
3.5
59.9%
40.1%
1.67
4.5
40.4%
59.6%
2.47
5.5
24.2%
75.8%
4.13
6.5
12.9%
87.1%
7.74

Shots

Per-match rolling average
RomaFiorentina
0SHOTS / MATCH0
0ON TARGET0
0CONCEDED0
0ON TARGET CONC.0
Total Shots — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Roma (12.43 / 9.30 per match) and Fiorentina (12.33 / 11.97). Expected total: 23.02. Total shots includes off-target attempts.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
18.5
82.6%
17.4%
1.21
20.5
69.1%
30.9%
1.45
22.5
52.9%
47.1%
1.89
24.5
36.7%
63.3%
2.73
26.5
22.9%
77.1%
4.37
Total SoT — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Roma (4.53 / 3.73 per match) and Fiorentina (4.23 / 4.20). Expected total: 8.35. Shots on target only — typically half the total shot count.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
6.5
72.7%
27.3%
1.38
7.5
59.4%
40.6%
1.68
8.5
45.5%
54.5%
2.20
9.5
32.7%
67.3%
3.06
10.5
22.0%
78.0%
4.55
11.5
13.8%
86.2%
7.22

Combos & Specials

Combo Bet Hit Rate
How often each team has hit common combo bets (Win+BTTS, Win-to-Nil, Win+Over 2.5) — overall and against specific tiers. Cells suppressed when sample < 5 matches.
Roma
Win + BTTS
season
6.7%
vs top
0%
vs mid
11.1%
vs bottom
12.5%
Win to Nil
season
46.7%
vs top
16.7%
vs mid
66.7%
vs bottom
75%
Win + Over 2.5
season
20%
vs top
0%
vs mid
22.2%
vs bottom
50%
Loss + BTTS
season
20%
vs top
33.3%
vs mid
0%
vs bottom
12.5%
Draw + Under 2.5
season
13.3%
vs top
33.3%
vs mid
0%
vs bottom
0%
Scored in Both Halves
season
40%
vs top
41.7%
vs mid
44.4%
vs bottom
37.5%
Fiorentina
Win + BTTS
season
23.3%
vs top
30.8%
vs mid
18.2%
vs bottom
20%
Win to Nil
season
20%
vs top
15.4%
vs mid
18.2%
vs bottom
40%
Win + Over 2.5
season
26.7%
vs top
38.5%
vs mid
18.2%
vs bottom
20%
Loss + BTTS
season
13.3%
vs top
15.4%
vs mid
9.1%
vs bottom
0%
Draw + Under 2.5
season
23.3%
vs top
23.1%
vs mid
27.3%
vs bottom
20%
Scored in Both Halves
season
16.7%
vs top
23.1%
vs mid
9.1%
vs bottom
20%
Unbeaten Run
Consecutive matches without losing — the safer side of Double Chance / DNB
Roma
5 matches unbeaten
5
Fiorentina
1 match unbeaten
1
Win % Excluding Draws
How often each team wins when the match doesn't end in a draw — DNB anchor
Roma
100%
5W · 0D · 0L · draw rate 0%
Fiorentina
50%
1W · 3D · 1L · draw rate 60%

HIDDEN PATTERNS

Roma vs Fiorentina
  • Fire signs ignite! When the sun is in Aries/Leo/Sagittarius and Roma playRoma SCORE
    8/8Applies today
  • OJ futures pop! When orange-juice futures close higher and Roma playRoma SCORE
    19/19Applies today
  • Numerology speaks! When the date digits add to an even number and Roma playRoma SCORE
    8/8Applies today
  • Waxing Moon Effect! When the moon grows and Roma playRoma SCORE
    9/9Applies today
  • Waxing Moon Effect! When the moon grows and Fiorentina playFiorentina SCORE
    8/9Applies today

Match Insights

Betting Trends
No betting data available for this market yet.

League bests

BEST OVERALL
  1. #1IK Sirius2.67 poäng/match
  2. #2Hammarby IF1.77 poäng/match
  3. #3BK Hacken1.67 poäng/match
BEST ATTACK
  1. #1IK Sirius2.75 mål/match
  2. #2Hammarby IF2.15 mål/match
  3. #3Djurgardens IF2.09 mål/match
BEST DEFENCE
  1. #1GAIS0.92 insläppta/match
  2. #2Hammarby IF1.08 insläppta/match
  3. #3IF Elfsborg1.08 insläppta/match
BEST FORM
  1. #1IK Sirius80% vinster senaste 5
  2. #2Malmo FF60% vinster senaste 5
  3. #3IF Elfsborg60% vinster senaste 5
BEST GOAL DIFFERENCE
  1. #1IK Sirius+18
  2. #2Hammarby IF+14
  3. #3Djurgardens IF+8
★ PLAYERSWho decides this match.

PLAYER PROFILE

Roma vs Fiorentina
Roma
  • Ferguson, Evan
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Dybala, Paulo
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Pellegrini, Lorenzo
    0G
    0A
    0
Fiorentina
  • Dzeko, Edin
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Balbo, Luis
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Viti, Mattia
    0G
    0A
    0

TOP SCORERS

  1. 1
    Ure, RobbieSIR
    12
  2. 2
    Botheim, ErikMAL
    10
  3. 3
    Bjerkebo, IsakSIR
    10
  4. 4
    Ladefoged, MikkelVAS
    9
  5. 5
    Lien, Kristian StromlandDJU
    7
  6. 6
    Abraham, PaulosHIF
    7
  7. 7
    Heintz, TobiasIFK
    6
  8. 8
    Besara, NahirHIF
    5
  9. 9
    Lind, VictorHIF
    5
  10. 10
    Bergstrom, JacobMJA
    5

Top Assists

  1. 1
    Hegland, Bo AsulvDJU
    8
  2. 2
    Berg, OliverBRO
    5
  3. 3
    Haksabanovic, SeadMAL
    5
  4. 4
    Krusnell, OscarSIR
    5
  5. 5
    Hansen, MadsBRO
    5
  6. 6
    Sana, TobiasORG
    4
  7. 7
    Besara, NahirHIF
    4
  8. 8
    Layouni, AmorHAC
    4
  9. 9
    Lushaku, IsmetVAS
    4
  10. 10
    Milovanovic, WilliamGAIS
    4
★ MATCH INFOVenue, ref, weather.
RRoma
FFiorentina
Serie ASat 22 Aug, 15:00
Historical H2H (4 meetings)
Avg goals: 3.50 · BTTS: 50% · Over 2.5: 75% · Clean sheet either side: 50%
DateMatchScoreComp.
04 May 26AS Roma vs ACF Fiorentina4–0—
05 Oct 25ACF Fiorentina vs AS Roma1–2—
04 May 25AS Roma vs ACF Fiorentina1–0—
27 Oct 24ACF Fiorentina vs AS Roma5–1—
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